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美国扬言“永远称霸亚洲”:意外获得这个“敌国”力挺(1)

海外探客 2018-06-19 18:10:01

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“海外探客”认为,实力衰弱的标志之一就是对以前不屑于表态的事反复强调。美国海军作战部长约翰-理查森在10月3日就着重指出要“维持美国的海上优势”、“美国海军永远都会在南海出现”。类似的论调探客已经听到过很多,譬如什么“美国永远不会衰落”、“美国会永远称霸亚洲”、“保护盟国的决心不会动摇”……在二三十年前美国占据绝对优势的年代,这个唯一的超级大国从不会做出如此表态,只有当实力受到质疑时,才需要靠这些言论给盟国打气。

维持盟友的信任,最关键的不是撂狠话和表决心,而是需要钱、钱、钱。菲律宾总统杜特尔特为何屡次挑衅美国?为何敢人身攻击奥巴马乃至教皇?为何扬言“美菲军演是最后一次”?主要就是因为他看到美国不能像以前一样予取予求,西方这座冰山已然靠不住。美国海军作战部长已经表达了类似的担忧,针对“对手正尽一切力量研究、了解我们”,他提出了“第三次抵消战略”。

什么是“抵消战略”?一言以蔽之,就是依靠“创新驱动”,研发出能够降低美国人伤亡与战争投入的颠覆性科技优势。“第一次抵消战略”诞生于20世纪50年代,艾森豪威尔政府提出了核优势战略,成功抵消了苏联陆军强大的常规地面部队的数量优势,导致苏联的“以兵换兵”的游戏规则破产。“第二次抵消战略”是以先进的微电子和信息技术为“力量倍增器”,对抗数量优势的常规部队,加上限制技术出口与中导条约等,再次束缚住苏联。不过这种战略犹如武侠中的“七伤拳”,伤人也伤己,即使拥有深厚内功也不例外。如今可以看到的档案显示,在限制苏联的同时,美国也付出了巨大的代价,只是凭借西方世界的经济优势与控制石油价格,才惊险地赢得了冷战的胜利。

如今美国的“第三次抵消战略”将以什么形式展开?探客认为,主要应该分为三个部分:第一还是利用自身的科技优势,研发出领先对手一代甚至两代的先进武器,实现阻吓,完成“前沿存在”、“前沿部署”、“前沿作战”的构想,譬如美军的F-22、朱姆沃尔特级驱逐舰、加入电磁弹射阻拦装置的10万吨核动力航母福特号、单价高达21亿美元的B-2战略轰炸机、弗吉尼亚级核动力攻击潜艇等等酷炫的装备。第二是利用美国现有的影响力,继续维持如今不平衡的国际贸易体系与游戏规则,但随着亚投行的成立、人民币纳入SDR和美国拒绝通过TPP,这一体系如今已经摇摇欲坠,是美国的最大短板。第三就是扩大“盟友圈”,依靠“集体防御”来抵消和延缓新兴大国的崛起,这个战略如今看起来犬牙交错和错综复杂,因为没有哪个国家能承担选边战队的代价。

美国在亚太的“盟友圈”传统上分为好几个等级,第一等级是铁杆派,如澳大利亚和日本,第二等级是维持平衡派,如韩国、新加坡、泰国和蒙古,第三等级是若即若离,如文莱、印尼、马来西亚,如今又加上从第一等级跌到第三等级的菲律宾。但有一个美国曾经的“敌国”却在此时跳出来力挺美国,令人感到意外。美国海军在10月4日宣布,美国军舰将在越战后首次停靠越南的金兰湾。

美国对金兰湾太过于熟悉。越南战争期间,南越政府将金兰湾租给美国作为军事基地,美国对其全面的扩建,从该基地出动飞机对北越地区进行轰炸。在越战期间,越南损失的军队数量接近150万,平民伤亡无法精确统计,但总数不会低于200万,战争给越南造成巨大创伤,财产损失无法弥补,作为主要劳动力的成年男性伤亡巨大,直到现在,美军当年抛洒的“橙剂”还在危害越南人民。不知有多少美军战机从金兰湾起飞,炸死了不知多少越南人,而将近半个世纪的时间过去后,金兰湾很可能再次成为美国在东亚的桥头堡。这一切都发生在菲律宾向美军开放5个基地之后,但意义之重大,是菲律宾无法比拟的。

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