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来源:凤凰国际智库

文章来源:东博社

作者:大庭三枝

大约一年半前建立亚洲第一个地区共同体的东盟,今年迎来了成立50周年纪念。尽管面临着各种各样的危机,东盟然是一个最有作为的地区组织机构,不过目前内外均面临比以前更加严峻的挑战。

对于特朗普政府如何维持整个地区秩序的亚洲政策,东盟还看不到头绪,当然,也并非没有明朗的征兆。比如,美国副总统彭斯已明确表明,特朗普将参加今年11月在越南举行的亚太经合论坛(APEC)首脑会议,及在菲律宾举行的美国-亚细安峰会和东亚峰会,如果得以实现,那可是一个值得欢迎的举措。

但在另一方面,特朗普政府在认定有从事不公平贸易的国家名单中,加入了泰国和越南等部分东盟国家,引起了风波。众多东盟国家一开始就对特朗普政府的保护主义倾向表示担忧,可以说这已成了事实。另外,由于特朗普政府决定脱离TPP(跨太平洋伙伴关系协定),使得亚洲经济一体化的方向变得极为不明朗,取而代之的是对RCEP(区域全面经济伙伴关系协定)寄予很大的期待,但RCEP的谈判毫无进展。

在另一方面, 东盟各国欢迎加强与中国建立经济伙伴关系,这就使局面更加复杂化。今年3月,又有17个国家决定参加AIIB(亚洲基础设施投资银行)。而且,中国已预定今年5月将举行有关“一带一路”的国际会议,许多东盟国家也安排首脑或部长参加会议。中国在经济上的动作忽隐忽现,加上雅加达-万隆之间的高速铁路计划,中国对东南亚的基础设施投资冒出了各种各样的问题。不过,大体上,东盟各国都打算把中国资金运用到本国的发展上,这已经成为中国的外交资源之一。

不仅是这种外部因素,东盟内部也发生了动摇。2016年在东盟区域内发生了11起恐怖袭击事件,其中包括声称伊斯兰国组织干下的案件。对于东盟来说,强化反恐对策已是一个重大任务。

尽管作为其存在的目的之一,东盟提出了保障人权和促进民主主义的主张,但近年来至少有几个国家的民主却出现了倒退或毫无进展的情况,人权问题似乎已使亚细安各国之间的关系处于不稳定的状态。自2014年发生军事政变以来,加上长期以来一直为泰国的稳定发展做出贡献的泰王普密蓬在2016年去世,泰国已处于军事统治之下。

去年,通过民主程序选出的菲律宾总统杜特尔特,因所推行的取缔毒品政策过于激烈和残酷,被认为侵犯了人权受到了内外的谴责。民主派旗手昂山素季,实际上已成为缅甸的最高领导人,但她领导下的缅甸面对日趋严重的罗兴亚人问题束手无策,成为东盟的一个重要课题,东盟对此表示高度关注并给予指责。

[责任编辑:任一帆 PN131]

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